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Sol+Geo Activty Reports (07-Jan ~ 22-Jan)

:Issued: 2005 Jan 07 2210 UTC
Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 715 (N06w59) has decayed to a small single polarity sunspot. New Region 718 (S09E78) was numbered today and was responsible for occasional B-class flares. Another active region is rotating into view near S12. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Isolated C-class activity is possible from active regions near the southeast limb. GEOPHYSICAL: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. Transient flow, likely the CME activity from 04 and 05 January, impacted the geomagnetic field first at around 07/0900Z. The existing elevated solar wind speed increased from 500 km/s to just over 600 km/s. The major storming followed a period of sustained southward Bz to near -10 nT between 07/1300 - 1500Z. A second disturbance passed the ACE spacecraft at 07/2010Z. Only a weak enhancement was observed on the plasma measurements; however, the IMF Bz turned sharply southward to near -15 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again this period. The energetic electrons, which have been sustained at high levels since 03 January, dropped below the high threshold at approximately 07/1900Z.

:Issued: 2005 Jan 09 2210 UTC
Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. Region 719 (S09E65) produced an M2.4 at 0854Z on 09 Jan which was accompanied by Type II radio emissions indicating a CME. Though it is reported as a small region, it continues to produce several plage fluctuations and point brightenings. Flare potential for this region remains fair. Region 718 (S06E54) continues to shrink, loosing another sunspot over yesterday with no other significant activity noted. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. There does, however exist the slight chance that Region 719 will produce an isolated M-class flare.

:Issued: 2005 Jan 10 2210 UTC
Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 719 (S08E55) remains a two-spot beta magnetic configuration, with several minor plage fluctuations. Region 718 (S07E46) continues to show no notable activity. Region 720 (N09E69) was newly numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 719 continues to have a fair chance for flare activity, but poses little threat for greater than an isolated C-class event.

:Issued: 2005 Jan 11 2210 UTC
Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 718 (S06E32) produced a very impulsive C1.4 on 11 Jan at 1616Z. Regions 718 and 719 (S07E35) have been combined into Region 718. IB. FORECAST: Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 718 continues to show minor plage fluctuations with a fair chance for isolated C-class activity.

:Issued: 2005 Jan 12 2210 UTC
Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A C1.1 flare occurred at 11/2329Z from Region 718 (S07E19). Region 718 and 720 (N13E37) have exhibited significant growth in both area and number of spots. Region 720 increased its area from 50 millionths to 420 millionths since the last reporting period. However, both regions still maintain a beta magnetic structure and have been relatively quiet so far. FORECAST: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class activity. Region 720 is the most likely source for an M-class flare due to it continual growth.

:Issued: 2005 Jan 14 2210 UTC
Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 720 (N13E10) produced an M1.8/Sf flare at 14/1411Z and an M1.5 flare at 14/1757Z. Region 718 (S05W06) produced an M1.0 flare at 14/1606Z. Region 720 has increased in area to 1540 millionths and is a beta delta magnetic class. Region 718 has also increased in area to 250 millionths. FORECAST: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 720 is capable of producing multiple M-class events and possibly an X-class event. Region 718 has also shown the capability of producing M-class events.

:Issued: 2005 Jan 15 2210 UTC
Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was at high levels. Large Region 720 (N13W03) produced three major flares this period, beginning with an X1/1b flare at 15/0043Z. There was no CME associated with this X-class flare. An impulsive M8 flare was observed at 15/0431Z, and at 15/0638Z, the region produced the most significant event of the period, a long duration M8 flare. This event had associated intense radio emission including a 160,000 sfu burst on 410 MHz and moderate to strong centimetric bursts including a 3000 sfu Tenflare. Type II (1300 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps were also observed, and the energetic protons (>10 MeV) began to rise soon after the flare maximum. SOHO/LASCO imagery revealed a fast full halo coronal mass ejection. Region 720 is a large and magnetically complex sunspot group with white light area coverage exceeding 1600 millionths. Strong shear along an extended east-west inversion line in this region was the focal point for the major flare activity. Region 718 (S07W21) produced an M3 flare at 15/1423Z with an associated 420 sfu Tenflare and CME off the southwest limb. FORECAST: Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels. Region 720 has potential for M and X-class flares. An isolated M-class flare is also possible from Region 718.

:Issued: 2005 Jan 16 2210 UTC
Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 720 (N13W15) produced several flares throughout the day. The largest was an X2/3B at 15/2302 UTC. This flare was associated with significant radio output that included 6400 sfu at 2695 MHz and type II/IV radio sweeps. There was also an asymmetric full halo CME associated with this event. The region remains large and magnetically complex, showing little structural changes since this major flare. New Regions 721 (S03E14) and 722 (N19E04) were numbered. FORECAST: Solar activity is expected to be high to very high. Region 720 appears capable of additional major flares. GEOPHYSICAL: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A proton event at greater than 10 MeV began at 16/0210 UTC in response to the X2 flare mentioned in Part IA and remains in progress. Peak flux observed so far was 312 pfu at 16/1935 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was high. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to major to severe storm levels within the next several hours with the arrival of the first of at least two expected CMEs generated over the past few days by Region 720. The proton event is expected to continue in progress.

:Issued: 2005 Jan 17 2210 UTC
Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 720 (N13W30) continued to produce flare activity with the largest being an X3/2f at 17/0952 UTC. This flare was associated with a complex full-halo CME directed mostly towards the northwest. Although this region remains large and magnetically complex some restructuring of the sunspots was apparent following this flare. New Region 723 (N06E77) is rotating around the east limb. FORECAST: Solar activity is expected to remain at high to very high levels. Region 720 could produce yet another major solar event. GEOPHYSICAL: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels. Solar wind conditions observed by the NASA ACE spacecraft show a fairly complex onset of activity which may suggest the arrival of a solar wind structure from combined CMEs expected from previous major flares on 15 January. The proton event at greater than 10 MeV that began on 16/0210 UTC remains in progress. The latest X3 flare discussed in Part IA has increased the current peak flux to 5040 pfu observed at 17/1750 UTC. A proton event at greater than 100 MeV also resulted from the X3 flare, beginning at 17/1215 UTC and with a current peak flux of 28 pfu observed at 17/1700 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux observed by the GOES spacecraft, as well as the solar wind parameters observed by the ACE SWEPAM instruments, have been rendered temporarily unusable due to the energetic proton event.

:Issued: 2005 Jan 18 2200 UTC
Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 720 (N13W44) continued to flare; however, the largest event in the past 24 hours was an M4/2n at 18/1551 UTC. Although the region remains large and magnetically complex, further sunspot restructuring and decay is evident since yesterday. New Region 724 (S12W07) emerged on the disk. FORECAST: Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 720, although diminishing in complexity, still has sufficient potential for another major solar event. GEOPHYSICAL: The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to severe storm levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event remains in progress with a start time of 16/0210 UTC and a peak flux of 5040 pfu observed at 17/1750 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV proton event also remains in progress with a start time of 17/1215 UTC and a 28 pfu peak flux observed at 17/1700 UTC. GOES spacecraft electron sensors and ACE SWEPAM instruments remain affected by the energetic proton event.

:Issued: 2005 Jan 19 2200 UTC
Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 720 (N14W56) produced an X1/2n flare at 19/0822 UTC. This flare was similar to previous major flares in this region with strong radio output and a CME directed mostly to the northwest. Further decay in the region has occurred, although it remains fairly large and magnetically complex. FORECAST: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 720 retains the potential for another major event. GEOPHYSICAL: The geomagnetic disturbance remained in progress at the active to severe storm level. The greater than 100 MeV proton event has ended: start 17/1215 UTC, 28 pfu peak at 17/1700 UTC, and end 18/2205 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton event remains in progress but is decaying: start 16/0210 UTC and 5040 pfu peak at 17/1750 UTC. Proton fluxes have decreased enough for the GOES electron sensors and ACE SWEPAM instruments to again provide reliable data. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.

:Issued: 2005 Jan 20 2210 UTC
Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 720 (N14W70) produced an X7/2b flare at 0701 UTC, which was accompanied by Type II and Type IV radio sweeps. There is one image from the LASCO C2 coronagraph which shows an associated CME off the northwest limb at 0654 UTC. However, shortly after this observation the coronagraph data became difficult to use due to high levels of energetic particles. Region 720 continues to be large, with a sheared magnetic delta configuration along an east-west polarity inversion line. FORECAST: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 720 continues to have potential for producing an additional major flare. The location of Region 720 on the disk also implies that there is a fair chance for more energetic particles in association with future major flare activity. GEOPHYSICAL: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active during the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds were elevated (700-900 km/s) from the start of the interval up through at least 0700 UTC, after which the ACE real-time SWEPAM data became unusable due to elevated energetic particle flux. The interplanetary magnetic field, however, was weak with fluctuations between -4 nT to +6 nT. A new injection of protons was observed at 0650 UTC in association with the X7 flare. The greater than 100 MeV protons rose rapidly and attained a maximum of 652 PFU at 0710 UTC. The 100 MeV flux has been declining steadily since then. This high flux level makes this the largest greater than 100 MeV proton event observed since October 1989. A greater than 10 MeV proton event was in progress at the time of the new injection, but the new particles quickly increased the flux from initial values around 40 PFU to a peak value in the past 24 hours of 1860 PFU at 0810 UTC.

:Issued: 2005 Jan 21 2210 UTC
Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. There were two M-class events during the past 24 hours: an M1 from Region 720 (N13W83) at 1016 UTC, and an M1 from Region 719 (S06W90) at 1355 UTC. Two new regions emerged on the disk today: Region 725 (S04W36) and Region 726 (S02E27). FORECAST: Solar activity is expected to be moderate. In addition, there is a fair chance for a major flare and/or proton producing event from Region 720 as it rotates off the solar disk. GEOPHYSICAL: Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was initially at quiet to unsettled levels until a sudden impulse occurred at 1711 UTC. The sudden impulse was preceded by a strong shock at the ACE spacecraft: solar wind velocity jumped from about 600 km/s to 900-1000 km/s. The sudden impulse at Earth was followed by magnetopause crossings at geosynchronous orbit and severe levels of geomagnetic activity. The shock and subsequent disturbed solar wind were most likely a response to a CME associated with yesterday's X7 event. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 20/0650 UTC continued to decline during the past 24 hours and dropped below threshold at 21/1845 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began 16/0210 continues in progress: flux levels continue to decline with current levels at about 50 PFU.

:Issued: 2005 Jan 22 2210 UTC
Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. There were three C-class flares: a C3 at 0432 UTC from the west limb at S07, a C1 at 1245 UTC from the west limb at N14, and a C1 at 2053 UTC from the west limb at N15. The first flare was probably from old Region 719 which recently rotated around west limb, and the other two were probably from Region 720 which rotated off the disk today. With the departure of Region 720, Region 725 (S04W49) is now the largest group on the disk with an area of about 190 millionths. Region 725 has been growing steadily but so far has produced only minor flare activity. FORECAST: Solar activity is expected to be mostly low. There is a chance for an M-class event, and a slight chance for a major flare event, from Region 720 during the next 24 hours (23 January). However, the likelihood for M-class or higher level events is expected to decline strongly for the 2nd and 3rd days (24-25 January) as the region gets further beyond the west limb. GEOPHYSICAL: Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels from the beginning of the period (21/2100 UTC) through 22/0600 UTC. Since 0600 UTC conditions have been mostly unsettled. Solar wind signatures show a steady decline in velocity from around 950 km/s at the beginning of the interval down to about 650 km/s by 22/2100 UTC. Bz has been weak and density has been low since 22/0200 UTC up to the current time. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes continued to decline today and appear to have dropped below threshold of 10 PFU after 22/1755 UTC.

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